Harare, Still Conflicting
Given the date, March 31, 2025, and the context of Harare, Zimbabwe, there are several conflicting messages and developments that make predicting today’s events challenging but possible to assess based on available information. Let’s break this down systematically.
Context and Conflicting Messages
There are reports of significant political tension in Harare leading up to today. A planned demonstration, described by some as an "uprising," has been called for by Blessed Geza, an exiled military veteran, demanding the resignation of President Emmerson Mnangagwa. This stems from allegations of corruption, nepotism, and economic mismanagement, with some war veterans and political elites reportedly backing Vice President Constantino Chiwenga as a potential successor. The ruling ZANU-PF party, however, has dismissed these calls as "delusional rumblings" and vowed that no protests will occur, with the government taking pre-emptive measures like dismissing a senior general and increasing security.
On the other hand, recent arson attacks in Harare and Goromonzi, confirmed by the Zimbabwe Republic Police, have heightened tensions, with some linking these incidents to the upcoming protests. Posts on X reflect public concern, with warnings to avoid Harare’s CBD due to expected heavy police presence, a weapons ban, and potential violence. Some speculate that clashes could erupt if crowds grow, while others believe the protests might fizzle out due to government crackdowns, with Geza’s allies potentially being arrested.
Additionally, there are unrelated but concurrent developments in Zimbabwe, such as the Chinese embassy’s donations of Boer goats and boreholes, a cholera outbreak, and economic struggles (e.g., civil servants moonlighting as vendors due to low salaries). These highlight the broader socio-economic challenges that might fuel public discontent but don’t directly predict today’s events.
Analysis of Likely Scenarios
- Protest Activity and Government Response:
- The planned demonstration is a focal point. Given the government’s pre-emptive actions—dismissing a senior general, increasing security, and issuing warnings—it’s likely that Harare will see a heavy police and possibly military presence today, especially in the CBD. The weapons ban suggests authorities are preparing for potential unrest.
- However, the scale of the protests is uncertain. Some sources, like independent political analyst Elton Ziki, suggest that the "temperature" isn’t as high as it was during the 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe, implying that public turnout might be limited. The arrest of journalist Blessed Mhlanga and the crackdown on dissent (e.g., activists being tortured before a regional summit last year) indicate the government’s willingness to suppress opposition, which could deter large crowds.
- On X, sentiment leans toward caution, with some users predicting violence if protests gain traction, potentially pitting ZANU-PF and police against war veterans, the army, and a divided public. Others believe the protests might be small and easily contained, with Geza’s allies being targeted for arrest.
- Potential for Violence or Escalation:
- The recent arson attacks in Harare and Goromonzi (on March 28) suggest that tensions are already manifesting in destructive ways. If these incidents are linked to Geza’s supporters, as some speculate, they could embolden authorities to crack down harder, increasing the risk of clashes.
- There’s a slim chance of military involvement, as speculated on X, with some suggesting Chiwenga might leverage the unrest to challenge Mnangagwa. However, Mnangagwa’s recent moves (e.g., replacing the army chief with a loyalist in a cabinet role) indicate he’s trying to secure his position, making a military flip less likely at this stage.
- Public Sentiment and Participation:
- Economic hardship—highlighted by civil servants vending to survive, high inflation, and power shortages—could drive public support for the protests. The Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Conference’s recent letter criticized the government’s focus on extending Mnangagwa’s term (the "2030 debate") as a distraction from real issues like unemployment and corruption, which might resonate with ordinary Zimbabweans.
- However, fear of repression, as seen in past crackdowns (e.g., the 2015 disappearance of activist Itai Dzamara), might keep many away. The opposition, including figures like Nelson Chamisa, has been ambiguous about supporting the protests, which could limit organized participation.
- Other Factors:
- Weather in Harare today is reported as mild with light rain (16-25°C), which might slightly dampen turnout but isn’t a significant barrier.
- International attention is limited, with no major global events directly tied to Zimbabwe today (e.g., the Brussels Airport strike or Hari Raya in Malaysia are unrelated). However, regional dynamics, like the withdrawal of SADC troops from eastern Congo, might indirectly affect Zimbabwe’s military focus.
Prediction
Based on the available information, here’s what’s most likely to happen today in Harare:
- Small-Scale Protests with Heavy Security: The protests are likely to occur but on a smaller scale than anticipated by Geza. The government’s pre-emptive measures, including a strong security presence and a weapons ban, will probably deter large crowds. Expect roadblocks, checkpoints, and a tense atmosphere in the CBD, with normal activities disrupted.
- Localized Clashes Possible: If small groups of protesters gather, there could be isolated clashes with police, especially if war veterans or Geza’s allies attempt to mobilize. However, these are unlikely to escalate into a full-scale uprising, as public momentum doesn’t seem to match the 2017 anti-Mugabe protests.
- Arrests and Suppression: Authorities will likely target known organizers or Geza’s allies for arrest, as speculated on X. The government’s history of cracking down on dissent suggests they’ll act swiftly to prevent the protests from gaining traction.
- No Major Military Involvement: While there’s speculation about military involvement (e.g., Chiwenga flipping), Mnangagwa’s recent consolidation of power makes this unlikely today. The military might be visible as a show of force, but a coup or significant intervention isn’t probable at this stage.
- Public Impact: Most Harare residents will likely avoid the CBD due to safety concerns, as advised on X. Businesses might close early, and public transport could be disrupted. The light rain might further discourage turnout.
Critical Perspective
The establishment narrative—pushed by ZANU-PF and government officials like Jenfan Muswere—downplays the protests as insignificant and portrays Geza as a destabilizing figure. However, this ignores the underlying economic grievances (e.g., civil servants’ struggles, power shortages, cholera outbreaks) that could fuel unrest, even if not on a massive scale today. The government’s heavy-handed approach might suppress immediate protests but risks further alienating the public, potentially setting the stage for larger unrest in the future. Conversely, Geza’s call for an "uprising" might be overblown, as the lack of clear support from major opposition figures like Chamisa suggests limited coordination.
Conclusion
Today in Harare, expect a tense but controlled situation: small protests, a strong security presence, possible arrests, and localized disruptions, but no major uprising or military intervention. The deeper issues driving this unrest—economic hardship, corruption, and political repression—will likely persist, keeping Zimbabwe on edge in the coming weeks.
London and Globally - The Diaspora
Zimbabweans who have lost faith in their corrupt military/violent regime need to get up and go to their local Embassies en-masse, no more procrastinations. It's up to the global diaspora to create a message of unity towards a democratic government - AFTER 45 YEARS of the One-Party-Lunatic Military Junta. The bloody revolution was 45 years ago and now is the time to put it behind - However Justice needs to be dealt on all those blood-thirsty lunatics who committed genocide. Gukurahundi needs closure - that means a lot of people currently within the regime - alive or dead need to be named, removed and punished!
Go and Protest this Black Colonilaist Regime - It cannot be allowed to continue.
ZANU PF HAVE GONE